FACTORS AFFECTING WHEAT YIELD VARIATION OF SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN PUNJAB PROVINCE: APPLICATION OF ORDERED LOGISTIC MODEL
Keywords:ordered logistic regression, smallholder farmers, wheat, yield categories
Many socioeconomic, institutional and biophysical factors are causing high wheat yield variation among wheat growers in the country in general and in the Punjab province in specific. Ultimate purpose of present study was to determine factors affecting probability of wheat yield being in low, medium or high ordinals given the set of yield changing inputs. Cross-sectional data collected from randomly selected 320 wheat growers with 80 respondents from each of four agro-ecological regions of Punjab Province was analyzed through proportional odds model to obtain the study objectives. The study found out some socio-economic and agro-ecology related variables such as age, tractor ownership, role of income diversification through part-time farming, the contribution of smallholder tenants and owner-cum-tenants and chemical fertilizers that can significantly affect wheat yield categories of low, medium or high. Based on findings, it is imperative to support young innovative farmers having their own farm machinery, generate off-farm/on-farm income generating avenues for part-time farmers, and provide more facilities to smallholder farmers of both tenants as well as owner-cum tenant class in enhancing their wheat production of higher level. Moreover, agriculture advisory services should focus more on the cotton-wheat zone accompanied by appropriate use of seed rate, chemical fertilizers, and plant protection measures to enhance wheat yield in Punjab Province.
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